Evening Edition, September 15

Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Oman's foreign minister Tuesday to discuss de-escalation and reopening Hormuz, per the State Department.

Oman announced the Monday Iran-Gulf meeting on reopening the Strait of Hormuz was postponed; Iran said the postponement came at Saudi Arabia's request.

Trump on Monday repeated his claim that Iran wants to make a deal quickly.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, wrote on X: 'No talks until Iran's conditions are met.'

The IRGC Navy declared Monday: 'The Strait of Hormuz is closed and still under our smart control.'

Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi posted late Sunday that Monday's regional meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab states on Strait of Hormuz navigation was postponed 'in the interests of consensus.'

CNN reported the Hormuz meeting had been set for Monday in Salalah and is now indefinitely postponed, with Saudi Arabia having submitted amendments over concerns the draft framework could lock in a new status quo unacceptable to the Gulf states.

Iran's Fars news agency cited a foreign ministry official saying the postponement came at the request of some regional countries in a decision jointly made by Tehran and Muscat, and that Iran will coordinate with Oman on a new date.

A US official said 'Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz and never will.'

Three sources told CNN the Trump administration wants to refocus any future US-Iran negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program rather than on reopening the strait.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that Iran will not reopen the strait until the United States satisfies Tehran's demands, regardless of any agreement with Oman.

Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said the Iran-Oman shipping route agreement will be presented at Monday's Muscat meeting, which Iraq will also attend, but the strait will not reopen unless seven Iranian conditions conveyed to the U.S. are met.

Ebrahim Azizi, head of Iran's parliament national security committee, wrote on X that 'as long as the American side does not accept all of Iran's conditions, dialogue and negotiation are of no use.'

Iran's president Pezeshkian met Egypt's president amid rising regional tensions.

Pezeshkian wrote in a U.S.-aimed social media post: 'Our people can't be bullied into submission. Iran won't surrender.'

Iran's President Pezeshkian said Iran and Oman will sign an agreement Monday in Muscat on a joint shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, in the presence of Arab Gulf foreign ministers, with the IMO then notified.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters no signed agreement is expected from Monday's Muscat meeting, saying Iran still wants to collect transit fees from ships using the strait, which Oman rejects.

Bahrain said it will not attend the Muscat meeting or any collective meeting involving Iran until diplomatic relations are restored (ties cut in January 2016).

Pezeshkian said Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz when the United States ends its naval blockade and attacks, adding Washington failed militarily and turned to economic pressure.

Axios reports the US military and Gulf nations have begun escorting tankers through Hormuz in daylight — the first daytime escorts since the short-lived Operation Project Freedom in May. Axios is not on the approved list; treat as reported, partially corroborated.

TankerTrackers satellite imagery shows large tankers transiting in and out in daylight, corroborating the escort reports.

Transit volumes are disputed: TankerTrackers' 60-day average crude flow is only ~7.85M bpd — well under Trump's 17M bpd claim — and Reuters/Kpler data over the weekend showed fewer than 10 transits a day. Mark volumes medium confidence.

The El Gaia dispute stands unchanged: the IRGC says mines, CENTCOM says Iranian missiles and drones, the maritime authority stays neutral.

An AIS-based challenge to the CENTCOM El Gaia account appeared on globalsecurity.org's imagery digest — unverified, low confidence.

CENTCOM said the El Gaia is now being towed by a regional partner.

ISW's September 14 assessment called the IRGC's mine claim false, said recent US strikes degraded Iranian coastal radars, surveillance, and mine-laying capabilities, and noted Tasnim acknowledging Iran's grip on the strait may be waning — analysis, not outlet-verified fact.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, via state-run Fars news agency on Monday, claimed the Panamanian-flagged tanker El Gaia hit sea mines while passing through a prohibited zone south of the Strait of Hormuz; US Central Command immediately called the claim false.

CENTCOM said the El Gaia was 'struck by an Iranian missile last month and rendered inoperable,' then struck again by an Iranian drone over the weekend — an account the IRGC directly contradicts with its sea-mine claim.

The UN's International Maritime Organization reported the El Gaia was damaged Saturday and that two seafarers were missing.

India's Ministry of External Affairs says 13 of the 14 Indian crew were rescued off the Omani coast and one remains missing, and condemned the attack — but the IMO reports two missing, so casualty counts are unconfirmed and contested.

India's Ministry of External Affairs said the Panamanian-flagged MT El Gaia, carrying 14 Indians, was attacked off the Omani coast on Sunday; 13 have been rescued and search operations continue for one missing crew member.

US Central Command said on social media that American forces have redirected 100 commercial vessels through the strait over the past 60 days since the naval blockade of Iranian ports began.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains roughly 90% below pre-conflict levels.

An Iranian commercial vessel was struck near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, killing one member of its ten-person crew and wounding several others, Iranian state media said.

The governor of Qeshm blamed a 'terrorist enemy' for the ship attack and said authorities had not yet identified the projectile; the U.S. military had not commented.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said a second vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz late Saturday; a fire broke out and local authorities were evacuating the crew.

A Houthi official said Tuesday that Saudi warplanes struck Yemen, killing three people including two children — a Houthi claim with no independent verification.

The IOM now reports nearly 94,000 people displaced in southwestern Yemen (up from 80-82,000 this morning), with 2,000+ crossing to Djibouti — not yet approved-outlet verified.

Reuters reports the Houthis launched 'a new wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia' and are digging into positions on Yemen's western Red Sea coast, while 'urgent deliberations' are underway in Riyadh over how to respond.

Saudi and Yemeni air forces stepped up bombardment around Mokha, but the Houthis 'maintained effective control over almost the entire western coast,' per Yemeni officials.

Houthi media reported capturing Saudi-recruited fighters on the Hanish Islands, about 160 km north of Bab el-Mandeb — a Houthi-media claim, not independently verified.

Analyst Mohammed Al-Basha: 'All signs now point to a large-scale Saudi retaliation, and that likelihood is increasing by the day.'

Abdulmalik al-Houthi's 350,000-strong force moved weapons and thousands of troops around Mokha in mid-August, then used control of Yemeni telecoms to intercept enemies' calls and sow confusion during the seizure of Perim Island.

Cambridge's Elisabeth Kendall: 'They feel they've won the civil war... they aren't afraid of the United States.'

UNHCR says at least 80,000 people have been displaced by escalating Yemen fighting in recent days.

The IOM puts displacement at 82,000-plus since September 1, including more than 2,000 who fled across the Gulf of Aden to Djibouti.

The Houthis said Monday they fired dozens of missiles and drones at a military airbase in Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia, targeting hangars, radar systems, runways and ammunition depots, in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes in Yemen.

Saudi authorities re-issued emergency alerts in Khamis Mushait and three other southern cities, reversing Monday morning's lifting of those alerts.

The Saudi-led coalition said 13 civilians were wounded in the Khamis Mushait strike.

Saudi and Yemeni air forces stepped up bombardment of Houthi targets including around Mokha, but the Houthis kept 'effective control over almost the entire western coast' of Yemen along the Red Sea and are digging in.

Three sources told Reuters Washington has so far resisted Saudi requests for direct military intervention beyond intelligence support.

Trump said over the weekend he had spoken with the Saudi crown prince, and that the Houthis had also contacted Washington urging it to stay out of the fight.

Saudi state media reported Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met US regional commander Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah on Monday.

Saudi jets pounded Houthi positions around Mokha ahead of a planned counter-offensive by government loyalists; government forces rallied south of the city, regaining some territory.

The Houthis dispersed fighters through Mokha and are fortifying coastal positions; they also launched a new offensive east to cut off Taiz and besiege the government-held city.

Presidential council head Rashad Alimi dismissed the setback as 'incidental' and vowed the government would reclaim sovereignty over all national territories.

The UN estimates more than 80,000 people have been displaced by the fighting since the start of September.

Saudi Civil Defense lifted danger alerts Monday for Najran, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Abha amid the recent Houthi attack uptick.

The Yemeni military said it launched airstrikes Sunday on Houthi positions in Mokha, the coastal town of Dhubab, and elsewhere in Taiz province.

The Houthis reported Saudi/Saudi-backed strikes Sunday afternoon on Saada and artillery shelling in the Monabbih border district; the claims are unverified.

A government-allied force (the National Resistance) claimed more than 500 government fighters have been killed on the west coast over the past four weeks and about 1,500 wounded since Aug. 9, while claiming 1,000+ Houthis killed in Hodeida and Taiz; the claims are unverified.

Yemen presidential council member Sultan al-Arada called the collapse of government forces in Mokha 'painful and regrettable' and said forces are regrouping and will 'return to the battle in one form or another.'

Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed a large-scale missile-and-drone strike on a Saudi military base in Sharurah in southern Saudi Arabia, targeting weapons depots and command-and-control centers.

The Houthis said the Sharurah strike answered a wave of Saudi airstrikes they put at 129 sorties over 48 hours, a count Saudi Arabia had not confirmed.

Saudi Civil Defence said a Houthi projectile injured two people in the Jazan region and damaged several buildings, including a mosque.

Yemeni government forces said they struck Houthi positions in Mokha on Saturday and carried out three airstrikes in the Taiz region on Sunday.

Yemeni government forces announced they will deploy weapons and aircraft to retake areas seized in the Houthi lightning offensive, including the road to the port city of Mokha.

Satellite and open-source imagery show the Houthis mobilizing on Sept 12, days after capturing Mokha, Perim Island, Dhubab and the Hanish islands.

An adviser to Iran's supreme leader called the Houthi west-coast advance a 'clear victory' in a post on X.

Brent closed +2.9% at $108.75 and WTI +4.4% at $105.83 — the highest closes since May 19.

Libya's NOC said Tuesday operations are suspended at the Hamada and Tahara fields and a pumping station after the Petroleum Facilities Guard closed a valve on the main Hamada-Zawiya pipeline; the NOC may declare force majeure.

Libya volumes are small (~10,000 b/d per Argus), but the Guard threatens a partial cut for one week at Wafa, Al-Khamsa and El Feel, then a complete shutdown.

China's yuan-denominated Shanghai crude futures hit 929.4 yuan ($138.50)/bbl — a record since the contract's 2018 launch — driven by the Saudi pipeline outage and Chinese refiner buying.

Brent crude rose 1.8% to $107.59 a barrel and WTI gained 1.9% to $103.30 in early Tuesday European trading — above Monday's settlements ($105.68 / $101.39) but below Monday's intraday highs ($109.80 / $104.35).

US diesel hit a fresh record $6.27 a gallon on Tuesday, per AAA.

US oil executives warned a 'global fuel crisis has arrived' as commercial fuel stocks deplete and strategic reserves run low.

Saudi Arabia's TASI fell 0.8% in early Tuesday trade (Al Rajhi Bank -0.8%, Saudi Aramco -0.5%); Dubai's DFMGI and Abu Dhabi's FTFADGI each fell 0.2%, and Qatar's QSI fell 0.3% — on the fresh Houthi assault and the Hormuz shipping slump.

Commonwealth Bank's Vivek Dhar says global crude and product inventories give only five to eleven weeks of cover.

China's crude imports are edging higher.

Brent settled Monday up 1% at $105.68 a barrel and WTI up 1.3% at $101.39, well off earlier intraday highs of $109.80 and $104.35.

Prices pulled back after Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure — though neither country independently confirmed any such deal, per Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger.

The Fed announces its policy decision at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday; markets are betting heavily on a quarter-point hike to a 3.75%-4.00% range — the first under Chairman Kevin Warsh — driven by elevated inflation and $100-a-barrel oil.

Economists now expect at least one more Fed hike to follow, with crude futures well above $100 and diesel at record highs 'amid the unremitting Middle East war' pushing inflation expectations sharply higher.

A hike would put Warsh, who started in May with Trump's expectation that he would cut rates, in a tight political spot weeks before the midterms; Trump has so far blamed 'political' fellow central bankers rather than Warsh himself.

Brent crude rose 2.9% to $107.68 a barrel in early European trading Monday; WTI gained 2.8% to $102.88, after Brent gained 8.7% and WTI 9.4% last week.

Brent traded around $107.44 overnight (+2.7%); UK natural gas rose 4.3% to 207p a therm, its highest level since December 2022.

Markets priced an ~90% chance the Fed raises rates by 25bp on Wednesday after a hot August inflation report.

Economists estimate each $10 on a barrel of crude adds 0.2pp to inflation and trims growth by 0.1pp.

Brent crude jumped $3.62 (3.46%) at the market open to $108.23 a barrel; WTI rose $3.15 to $103.20 as of 22:14 GMT Sunday.

The US retail diesel price rose Sunday to another all-time high above $6.20 a gallon.

Brent crude settled Friday at $104.61 a barrel, up 8.7% on the week, after spiking to $107.63 on Thursday; markets were closed Sunday.

Asked about the pipeline closure and moving marine traffic through the strait, President Trump said everything will 'work out fine.'

Brent settled Friday at $104.61/bbl (down 2.8% on the day, up 8.7% on the week); WTI fell to $100.05 (up 9.4% on the week), with the pullback aided by reports of Oman's planned Hormuz meeting.

The U.S. national average diesel price topped $6 a gallon for the first time ever on Thursday, and the EIA estimated Middle East crude-production shut-ins averaged 6.7 million barrels a day in August.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran acquired satellite imagery of a US base in Jordan from Chinese entities before a July attack there that killed three American troops.

The Journal cited unnamed US officials who declined to identify the Chinese entities and did not allege direct involvement by Beijing; Reuters could not independently verify the report.

Trump dismissed the report aboard Air Force One: 'They basically do what we do... When they say China spies on us, I say you're right and we spy on them too'; he did not say whether he would raise it with Xi Jinping.

Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet in the US on September 24, though China has not confirmed; Trump said Xi had 'behaved reasonably well.'

Trump posted Monday: 'Oil will drop like a rock as soon as the Military Conflict with Iran is over, and that will not be long.'

Trump said Monday that oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran 'wants to make a deal, quickly and badly.'

Trump said the United States could 'stay in Iran and keep the oil,' drawing a parallel with the US deal in Venezuela, and claimed Venezuela's revenue had 'paid for the war many times.'

Trump repeated that he expects the Iran war to end this year, possibly just after the November midterm elections, and that gasoline prices would 'drop like a rock' once it does.

Trump added that Iran was 'calling constantly' for peace talks, an assertion Tehran has dismissed in the past.

The IRGC's maritime arm warned insurers, P&I clubs and classification societies on social media against servicing 'violating' vessels — an Iranian official claim with no approved-outlet pickup; unconfirmed.

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority published an updated list Monday of 77 vessels it says are 'violating Iranian protocols for the Strait of Hormuz.'

Listed vessels face restrictions on future passage including fines, detention, or confiscation; vessels cooperating with the authority will also be added to the list.

The Strait Authority warned insurers, P&I clubs, and classification societies to stop providing services to the listed vessels; the list was posted on X.

Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to single-digit daily numbers over the weekend, vs a 10-day average of 14; four vessels exited the Gulf and ten entered, excluding ships running with AIS transponders switched off.

In the Bab el-Mandeb strait, 24 and 27 commodity vessels transited Saturday and Sunday respectively, vs a 10-day average of about 27.

Shipping sources say Saudi Arabia has suspended oil loadings at the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, the terminus of the East-West pipeline; full repair of the pumping stations is still seen at six to eight weeks.

Saudi Arabia hopes to resume partial operations on the East-West Pipeline within days, but damaged pumping stations could take six to eight weeks to fully repair.

The 750-mile East-West line can carry up to 7 million barrels a day to Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing Hormuz.

Rystad's Janiv Shah estimates Yanbu's stored crude covers roughly three days of exports, with another week possible by drawing on crude stored in Egypt.

LSEG data show Yanbu loadings fell to 1.1M bpd in August versus 4M+ bpd in April-June, as Houthi Red Sea attacks deterred traffic.

Traders said a prolonged shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline could 'cut off as much as 4% of global oil supply' while the strait is largely blockaded; Riyadh has not said when operations resume.

The East-West pipeline stayed closed all weekend; traders and Saudi buyers say Riyadh has enough oil stored at its Red Sea port of Yanbu for just five to seven days if it stays shut, after which as much as 4% of global supply could be jeopardized; repair estimates range from days to weeks.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline remained shut on Sunday as a precaution after Thursday's drone attack; the 1,200-km line had been moving 4-5 million barrels per day, about 5% of global supply.

Satellite images showed black smoke south of Medina near the East-West pipeline after the drone attack, and some injuries were reported.

Iraq dismissed a military commander on Saturday after Baghdad and Riyadh both said the pipeline drone attack had originated in Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias operate.

President Trump told reporters in Dublin that Iran was 'probably' behind the Thursday drone attack launched from Iraq that shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (~5 mb/d to the Red Sea).

Trump said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called him twice Thursday urging U.S. strikes on the Houthis as they advanced in Yemen; Trump declined, saying the U.S. is focused on freedom of navigation.

Trump said the Houthis called his administration saying they do not want the U.S. directly involved; the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied responsibility for the pipeline attack, and Iraq closed some borders as a precaution.

Maersk said Monday that it and Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd will return four more services linking Asia, the Mediterranean and Europe to the Suez route, joining two returned earlier this year — even as the Houthis tightened control of the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.

MSC resumed some Red Sea transits last month; Cosco and OOCL are also returning, per Linerlytica data; CMA CGM began resuming late last year; Maersk says it will 'closely monitor' security.

The UN Human Rights Council fact-finding mission on Iran said 'repeated airstrikes causing civilian casualties raise serious questions' about international humanitarian law compliance, warning that failure to cease 'may give rise to international responsibility, including for war crimes.'

The Institute for Science and International Security published Sept 14 satellite imagery saying Iran is limiting access to tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain — credible analysts, but no approved-outlet pickup; unconfirmed.

CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said the US destroyed two small Iranian boats this week that were trying to take possession of a US unmanned surface vessel off Iran, identifying the drone as a roughly 25-foot Saildrone and saying all surface drones 'remain fully accounted for.'

Iranian state media (IRNA), citing Hormozgan deputy governor Ahmad Nafisi, said Monday evening a pair of fishing boats off the Kargan coast near Larak Island came under attack from an 'enemy drone' and several fishermen are missing, with search and rescue underway; the Iranian account makes no mention of a drone-seizure attempt.

Axios, citing an anonymous US official, says two missiles were fired and most of those on board were killed — unconfirmed; no approved outlet has corroborated the casualty claim.

The identity of the boats and the casualties are contested: the US says an attempted drone theft by the Guard; Iran says fishermen under attack. The AP verified the CENTCOM statement itself, so a clash happened, but neither side's boat-identity or casualty version is verified.

CBS News published newly obtained photos of the aftermath of the March 2026 Iranian missile/drone strikes: the severed tail and destroyed radar dome of a USAF E-3 Sentry at Prince Sultan Air Base, destroyed trailers/barracks/vehicles at Camp Buehring, and building damage at Camp Arifjan; the images were provided by active service members on condition of anonymity. CBS is not on the approved-outlet list.

The CBS photos document an earlier attack, not a new attack: they show the aftermath of the March 27 strikes. The underlying damage is already corroborated — CNN geolocated the E-3 wreckage to Prince Sultan; the Wall Street Journal and AP reported the March 27 strike (6 ballistic missiles, 29 drones, at least 10-15 troops wounded); Air and Space Forces Magazine confirmed the E-3G Sentry loss.

A service member told CBS the damage 'hasn't been communicated to the American public' — unconfirmed, in tension with Monday's Pentagon inspector general loss accounting covered in this morning's edition.

The Defense Department Inspector General released a special report Monday, the first formal accounting of US equipment and facility losses in the Iran war, covering February 28 through June 30.

Iranian strikes 'damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures' at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan, and depleted key US munition stockpiles.

Army medevac helicopters were withdrawn from Iraq and Kuwait, so 'most medical evacuations have been carried out by ground ... to local treatment facilities.'

The Navy's regional hub in Bahrain was destroyed — acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said Iran 'blew the hell out of' it — forcing Diego Garcia to become the sea logistics hub and stretching resupply cycles to 14-18 days.

Damage to US diplomatic facilities totaled roughly $184 million; early-March Iranian drones hit the US Embassy in Riyadh (including the CIA station) and the Dubai consulate, and the Kuwait embassy suspended operations in March, resuming only emergency operations in late June.

More than 600 attacks on US facilities in Iraq caused the costliest damage of the war, about $157 million.

Up to 3,500 diplomatic personnel were out of the region between February 23 and June 30; most posts remain on 'restricted operations,' and officials have quietly discussed lasting post-war cuts to US personnel and facilities in the region.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made a one-day working visit to Cairo, meeting President Sisi at Al-Ittihadiya Palace, followed by expanded delegation talks (Saudi delegation included FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan) and a luncheon; he departed the same day.

The Egyptian presidency readout: both leaders stressed freedom and security of navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea; Sisi backed Saudi measures to protect its security and stability and called for a comprehensive, sustainable political solution to the Yemen crisis; Gulf security is 'an integral part of Egypt's national security.' Al Jazeera independently confirmed the readout.

Neither side gave firm details on any future steps; Egypt is unlikely to offer military help — mark remaining questions unconfirmed.

The US blocked a snapback-sanctions travel exemption for Iran's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami, so Austria revoked his visa and he missed the IAEA General Conference in Vienna; Iran and Russia protested.

BRICS leaders unanimously adopted the New Delhi Declaration, expressing deep concern over Middle East escalation and urging maximum restraint through dialogue and diplomacy, without naming any country.

On the BRICS summit sidelines, Pezeshkian met Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a notable direct Iran-UAE contact despite opposing sides in the war.