AGILE FACTOREPISODE MAP · U.S.–IRAN
EPISODE MAP

Evening Edition, September 12

2026-09-12

Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz · Drone attack shuts Saudi East-West pipeline · Houthi west-coast offensive / govt counter-offensive around Mokha

KEY NUMBERS — as of this edition
BRENT CRUDE (USD/BBL)
104.61
—
WTI CRUDE (USD/BBL)
100.05
—
US DIESEL (USD/GAL)
6
—
MIDDLE EAST CRUDE SHUT-INS (MB/D)
6.70
—
INTERACTIVE MAP
THE STORY SO FAR

Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz

DIPLOMACY
NEW THIS EDITION · 4
Iran's President Pezeshkian said Iran and Oman will sign an agreement Monday in Muscat on a joint shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, in the presence of Arab Gulf foreign ministers, with the IMO then notified.
● REPORTED
A senior Iranian official told Reuters no signed agreement is expected from Monday's Muscat meeting, saying Iran still wants to collect transit fees from ships using the strait, which Oman rejects.
● CORROBORATED
Bahrain said it will not attend the Muscat meeting or any collective meeting involving Iran until diplomatic relations are restored (ties cut in January 2016).
● REPORTED
Pezeshkian said Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz when the United States ends its naval blockade and attacks, adding Washington failed militarily and turned to economic pressure.
● REPORTED
4 claims as of this edition

Houthi west-coast offensive / govt counter-offensive around Mokha

PROXIES
NEW THIS EDITION · 3
Yemeni government forces announced they will deploy weapons and aircraft to retake areas seized in the Houthi lightning offensive, including the road to the port city of Mokha.
● REPORTED
Satellite and open-source imagery show the Houthis mobilizing on Sept 12, days after capturing Mokha, Perim Island, Dhubab and the Hanish islands.
● REPORTED
An adviser to Iran's supreme leader called the Houthi west-coast advance a 'clear victory' in a post on X.
Adviser to Iran's supreme leader (X post)
● REPORTED
3 claims as of this edition

Oil price shock (Brent above $100)

ENERGY
NEW THIS EDITION · 2
Brent settled Friday at $104.61/bbl (down 2.8% on the day, up 8.7% on the week); WTI fell to $100.05 (up 9.4% on the week), with the pullback aided by reports of Oman's planned Hormuz meeting.
● CORROBORATED
The U.S. national average diesel price topped $6 a gallon for the first time ever on Thursday, and the EIA estimated Middle East crude-production shut-ins averaged 6.7 million barrels a day in August.
● REPORTED
2 claims as of this edition

Drone attack shuts Saudi East-West pipeline

ENERGY
NEW THIS EDITION · 3
President Trump told reporters in Dublin that Iran was 'probably' behind the Thursday drone attack launched from Iraq that shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (~5 mb/d to the Red Sea).
● CORROBORATED
Trump said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called him twice Thursday urging U.S. strikes on the Houthis as they advanced in Yemen; Trump declined, saying the U.S. is focused on freedom of navigation.
● CORROBORATED
Trump said the Houthis called his administration saying they do not want the U.S. directly involved; the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied responsibility for the pipeline attack, and Iraq closed some borders as a precaution.
● REPORTED
3 claims as of this edition

BRICS New Delhi summit and declaration

DIPLOMACY
NEW THIS EDITION · 2
BRICS leaders unanimously adopted the New Delhi Declaration, expressing deep concern over Middle East escalation and urging maximum restraint through dialogue and diplomacy, without naming any country.
● REPORTED
On the BRICS summit sidelines, Pezeshkian met Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a notable direct Iran-UAE contact despite opposing sides in the war.
● REPORTED
2 claims as of this edition
WATCHLIST
Does Monday's Muscat meeting produce a signed Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping agreement, and on what terms (fees dispute unresolved)?
Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz
OPEN
Does the Yemeni government counter-offensive retake Mokha and the west-coast areas seized by the Houthis?
Houthi west-coast offensive / govt counter-offensive around Mokha
OPEN
When does the East-West pipeline return to service, and is responsibility for the drone attack ever established?
Drone attack shuts Saudi East-West pipeline
OPEN
Agile Factor · U.S.–Iran Briefing episode map. Built from the public evidence ledger; refreshed every edition (07:00 & 20:00 CT).