AGILE FACTOREPISODE MAP · U.S.–IRAN
EPISODE MAP

Evening Edition, September 13

2026-09-13

Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz · Houthi west-coast offensive / govt counter-offensive around Mokha · Attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz

KEY NUMBERS — as of this edition
BRENT CRUDE (USD/BBL)
108.23
+3.5%
WTI CRUDE (USD/BBL)
103.20
+3.1%
US DIESEL (USD/GAL)
6.20
+3.3%
MIDDLE EAST CRUDE SHUT-INS (MB/D)
6.70
—
INTERACTIVE MAP
THE STORY SO FAR

Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz

DIPLOMACY
NEW THIS EDITION · 6
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi posted late Sunday that Monday's regional meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab states on Strait of Hormuz navigation was postponed 'in the interests of consensus.'
Reuters, Badr Albusaidi (Oman FM)
● CONFIRMED
CNN reported the Hormuz meeting had been set for Monday in Salalah and is now indefinitely postponed, with Saudi Arabia having submitted amendments over concerns the draft framework could lock in a new status quo unacceptable to the Gulf states.
● REPORTED
Iran's Fars news agency cited a foreign ministry official saying the postponement came at the request of some regional countries in a decision jointly made by Tehran and Muscat, and that Iran will coordinate with Oman on a new date.
Reuters, Fars news agency
● REPORTED
A US official said 'Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz and never will.'
● REPORTED
Three sources told CNN the Trump administration wants to refocus any future US-Iran negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program rather than on reopening the strait.
● CORROBORATED
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that Iran will not reopen the strait until the United States satisfies Tehran's demands, regardless of any agreement with Oman.
● REPORTED
Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said the Iran-Oman shipping route agreement will be presented at Monday's Muscat meeting, which Iraq will also attend, but the strait will not reopen unless seven Iranian conditions conveyed to the U.S. are met.
Tasnim news agency, Reuters
● REPORTED
Ebrahim Azizi, head of Iran's parliament national security committee, wrote on X that 'as long as the American side does not accept all of Iran's conditions, dialogue and negotiation are of no use.'
Reuters, Ebrahim Azizi (Iran MP)
● REPORTED
Iran's president Pezeshkian met Egypt's president amid rising regional tensions.
● REPORTED
Pezeshkian wrote in a U.S.-aimed social media post: 'Our people can't be bullied into submission. Iran won't surrender.'
● REPORTED
Iran's President Pezeshkian said Iran and Oman will sign an agreement Monday in Muscat on a joint shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, in the presence of Arab Gulf foreign ministers, with the IMO then notified.
● REPORTED
A senior Iranian official told Reuters no signed agreement is expected from Monday's Muscat meeting, saying Iran still wants to collect transit fees from ships using the strait, which Oman rejects.
● CORROBORATED
Bahrain said it will not attend the Muscat meeting or any collective meeting involving Iran until diplomatic relations are restored (ties cut in January 2016).
● REPORTED
Pezeshkian said Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz when the United States ends its naval blockade and attacks, adding Washington failed militarily and turned to economic pressure.
● REPORTED
14 claims as of this edition

Attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz

MILITARY
NEW THIS EDITION · 3
India's Ministry of External Affairs said the Panamanian-flagged MT El Gaia, carrying 14 Indians, was attacked off the Omani coast on Sunday; 13 have been rescued and search operations continue for one missing crew member.
CNN, India's Ministry of External Affairs
● DISPUTED
US Central Command said on social media that American forces have redirected 100 commercial vessels through the strait over the past 60 days since the naval blockade of Iranian ports began.
Barron's, USCENTCOM
● CORROBORATED
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains roughly 90% below pre-conflict levels.
● REPORTED
An Iranian commercial vessel was struck near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, killing one member of its ten-person crew and wounding several others, Iranian state media said.
CNN, Iranian state media
● REPORTED
The governor of Qeshm blamed a 'terrorist enemy' for the ship attack and said authorities had not yet identified the projectile; the U.S. military had not commented.
AP, Qeshm governor
● REPORTED
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said a second vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz late Saturday; a fire broke out and local authorities were evacuating the crew.
UKMTO, Reuters
● CORROBORATED
6 claims as of this edition

Houthi west-coast offensive / govt counter-offensive around Mokha

PROXIES
NEW THIS EDITION · 4
The Yemeni military said it launched airstrikes Sunday on Houthi positions in Mokha, the coastal town of Dhubab, and elsewhere in Taiz province.
● REPORTED
The Houthis reported Saudi/Saudi-backed strikes Sunday afternoon on Saada and artillery shelling in the Monabbih border district; the claims are unverified.
● REPORTED
A government-allied force (the National Resistance) claimed more than 500 government fighters have been killed on the west coast over the past four weeks and about 1,500 wounded since Aug. 9, while claiming 1,000+ Houthis killed in Hodeida and Taiz; the claims are unverified.
● REPORTED
Yemen presidential council member Sultan al-Arada called the collapse of government forces in Mokha 'painful and regrettable' and said forces are regrouping and will 'return to the battle in one form or another.'
● REPORTED
Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed a large-scale missile-and-drone strike on a Saudi military base in Sharurah in southern Saudi Arabia, targeting weapons depots and command-and-control centers.
The Guardian, Yahya Saree (Houthi spokesman)
● REPORTED
The Houthis said the Sharurah strike answered a wave of Saudi airstrikes they put at 129 sorties over 48 hours, a count Saudi Arabia had not confirmed.
● REPORTED
Saudi Civil Defence said a Houthi projectile injured two people in the Jazan region and damaged several buildings, including a mosque.
Saudi Civil Defence, Reuters
● CORROBORATED
Yemeni government forces said they struck Houthi positions in Mokha on Saturday and carried out three airstrikes in the Taiz region on Sunday.
● REPORTED
Yemeni government forces announced they will deploy weapons and aircraft to retake areas seized in the Houthi lightning offensive, including the road to the port city of Mokha.
● REPORTED
Satellite and open-source imagery show the Houthis mobilizing on Sept 12, days after capturing Mokha, Perim Island, Dhubab and the Hanish islands.
● REPORTED
An adviser to Iran's supreme leader called the Houthi west-coast advance a 'clear victory' in a post on X.
Adviser to Iran's supreme leader (X post)
● REPORTED
11 claims as of this edition

Oil price shock (Brent above $100)

ENERGY
NEW THIS EDITION · 2
Brent crude jumped $3.62 (3.46%) at the market open to $108.23 a barrel; WTI rose $3.15 to $103.20 as of 22:14 GMT Sunday.
● REPORTED
The US retail diesel price rose Sunday to another all-time high above $6.20 a gallon.
● REPORTED
Brent crude settled Friday at $104.61 a barrel, up 8.7% on the week, after spiking to $107.63 on Thursday; markets were closed Sunday.
● REPORTED
Asked about the pipeline closure and moving marine traffic through the strait, President Trump said everything will 'work out fine.'
● REPORTED
Brent settled Friday at $104.61/bbl (down 2.8% on the day, up 8.7% on the week); WTI fell to $100.05 (up 9.4% on the week), with the pullback aided by reports of Oman's planned Hormuz meeting.
● CORROBORATED
The U.S. national average diesel price topped $6 a gallon for the first time ever on Thursday, and the EIA estimated Middle East crude-production shut-ins averaged 6.7 million barrels a day in August.
● REPORTED
6 claims as of this edition

Trump's Iran war endgame remarks

DIPLOMACY
NEW THIS EDITION · 3
Trump said the United States could 'stay in Iran and keep the oil,' drawing a parallel with the US deal in Venezuela, and claimed Venezuela's revenue had 'paid for the war many times.'
● REPORTED
Trump repeated that he expects the Iran war to end this year, possibly just after the November midterm elections, and that gasoline prices would 'drop like a rock' once it does.
● REPORTED
Trump added that Iran was 'calling constantly' for peace talks, an assertion Tehran has dismissed in the past.
● REPORTED
3 claims as of this edition

Drone attack shuts Saudi East-West pipeline

ENERGY
NEW THIS EDITION · 1
The East-West pipeline stayed closed all weekend; traders and Saudi buyers say Riyadh has enough oil stored at its Red Sea port of Yanbu for just five to seven days if it stays shut, after which as much as 4% of global supply could be jeopardized; repair estimates range from days to weeks.
● REPORTED
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline remained shut on Sunday as a precaution after Thursday's drone attack; the 1,200-km line had been moving 4-5 million barrels per day, about 5% of global supply.
● REPORTED
Satellite images showed black smoke south of Medina near the East-West pipeline after the drone attack, and some injuries were reported.
● REPORTED
Iraq dismissed a military commander on Saturday after Baghdad and Riyadh both said the pipeline drone attack had originated in Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias operate.
Reuters, Government of Iraq, Government of Saudi Arabia
● CORROBORATED
President Trump told reporters in Dublin that Iran was 'probably' behind the Thursday drone attack launched from Iraq that shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (~5 mb/d to the Red Sea).
● CORROBORATED
Trump said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called him twice Thursday urging U.S. strikes on the Houthis as they advanced in Yemen; Trump declined, saying the U.S. is focused on freedom of navigation.
● CORROBORATED
Trump said the Houthis called his administration saying they do not want the U.S. directly involved; the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied responsibility for the pipeline attack, and Iraq closed some borders as a precaution.
● REPORTED
7 claims as of this edition

BRICS New Delhi summit and declaration

DIPLOMACY
BRICS leaders unanimously adopted the New Delhi Declaration, expressing deep concern over Middle East escalation and urging maximum restraint through dialogue and diplomacy, without naming any country.
● REPORTED
On the BRICS summit sidelines, Pezeshkian met Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a notable direct Iran-UAE contact despite opposing sides in the war.
● REPORTED
2 claims as of this edition
WATCHLIST
Does Monday's Muscat meeting produce a signed Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping agreement, and on what terms (fees dispute unresolved)?
Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz
OPEN
Does the Yemeni government counter-offensive retake Mokha and the west-coast areas seized by the Houthis?
Houthi west-coast offensive / govt counter-offensive around Mokha
OPEN
When does the East-West pipeline return to service, and is responsibility for the drone attack ever established?
Drone attack shuts Saudi East-West pipeline
OPEN
Does Oman reschedule the postponed Iran-Gulf Hormuz navigation meeting, and does a revised legal framework emerge?
Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz
OPEN
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